Disaster Postponed - Labour and the Brexit Crisis

The “flextension” granted to the UK government has brought a temporary reprieve from the Brexit crisis. The government and opposition now have until October 31st to find a Brexit agreement which can be agreed by the European Union, or find another way to resolve the crisis, either by holding a referendum on the deal or revoking Article 50. However the problems which created the crisis remain, and there are many obstacles to a parliamentary resolution.

The Conservatives

The crisis has driven the Tories to the edge of collapse. The government has received crushing defeats on every attempt to drive through May’s Deal, several votes being the highest ever defeats for a governing party. May’s intransigence and unwillingness to attempt to seek a compromise or explore other avenues for a Brexit deal has lead to MPs seizing control of the parliamentary schedule on several occasions, and event unprecedented in history.

There has been a total breakdown of “cabinet discipline”, with members of the cabinet voting against the government repeatedly, while the convolutions of the government attempting to circumvent parliarment has 

Less easily noticed amid the chaos, but more relevant for the long term trend in politics has been the Conservatives becoming the party of “No Deal” Brexit. While the European Research Group of Brexit hardliners lead by Jacob Rees Mogg has received the most publicity for their intransigence in refusing to vote for May’s Deal, there are signs that both the membership and wider parliamentary party are now adopting extremist positions on Brexit. In a first, Dominic Grieve, former Attorney General and Peoples Vote supporter whose parliamentary motion forced the government to allow amendments to the deal, and opened the way for parliamentary control of the process, has been subject to a deselection motion by his constituency party. More indicative of widespread radicalisation of the Tories is the fact 180 Conservative MPs voted for No Deal when given the opportunity to by the indicative vote process.

That 180 conservative MPs would willingly vote for a No Deal Brexit shows the nationalist fantasies that have descended upon parts of the governing party in its bid to force through some form of Brexit.

With May to go at some point this year, the leading candidates for party leader are Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson, both hard Brexiteers. Whatever the outcome of the Brexit process, the base of the conservative party, and a majority of its MPs have adopted the positions of the far-right Brexiteers, and the party will be ruled by them for the foreseeable future.

The Labour Party

With May repeatedly humiliated, and the Conservatives tearing themselves apart, Corbyn’s Brexit strategy seems vindicated. By adopting a position of constructive ambiguity towards Brexit and refusing to come down decidedly for or against the process, he has avoided being charged with obstructing the process, or of aiding it, and maintained party discipline to vote down the government deal and force them to this crisis point.

There have been defections from Labour’s more neo-liberal wing to form the Independent Group (now rebranded Change UK Party) and there have been constant rows about Labours reluctance to support for second referendum, they have kept the bulk of the Party united around voting down May’s deal.

 As the government’s deal has now been voted down three times, parliament has taken control of the agenda to seek a compromise through the indicative votes process and May facing the intransigence of the ERG, she has been forced to turn to Corbyn to seek a deal. This potentially makes Corbyn one of the most powerful men in Britain. The negotiations for a compromise Brexit deal are not without significant risks, and it is not clear that Corbyn and his inner circle are sufficiently opposed to Brexit to avoid them.

Corbyn’s lukewarm opposition to Brexit has been demonstrated in a number of ways. Although he has kept up consistent criticisms of the governments negotiations and the content of the deal, he has avoided criticising the Brexit process itself and the nationalist and xenophobic politics driving it. While the pro-remain left, and even centrist Labour party figures have repeatedly criticised Brexit as a project driven by the far-right, little of this criticism has been uttered by the Labour front bench. A regular refrain from Labour spokespeople and the Labour front bench has been the need to honour the result of the referendum, and there has been little to no criticism of the proven allegations of the Leave campaign breaking campaign funding rules, actions which arguably aided the turnout of the Leave vote and should call the result in to question.

As well as the reluctance to question the validity of the vote or the politics which motivated it, there has been unequal treatment meted out to Labour MPs who have not toed the leadership line. MPs who voted for amendments which would have made the government adopt a softer Brexit deal were expelled from the shadows cabinet,  while MPs who voted with the government to prevent parliament taking more control of the Brexit process were not reprimanded or criticised.

Throughout 2018 the line of the Labour Party was that a General Election was necessary to resolve the Brexit issue, and they firmly rejected the prospect of a second referendum. This demonstrated a view held by the Labour leadership that Brexit was simply one among many policy issues, and one that could be resolved in our favour through Labour being in charge of the process and adopting a better negotiating stance. This view ignored the forces driving Brexit, and where the vast majority of Labour’s support lay; in the anti-Brexit camp. 

Polling in January showed 72% of Labour Party members wanted the party to back a second vote on Brexit, and 88% of those polled would vote to Remain in the event of a second referendum.

Even amongst Momentum members, the hard left of Labour’s membership, 41% support a second referendum outright, and a further 12% supported a second referendum if the party was unable to secure a general election. A further 28% wanted to keep the option of a referendum on the table. Only 17% of momentum members were totally opposed to having a final say referendum on the Brexit deal.

While a section of the working-class may have voted for Brexit, the majority of the Remain vote was working people, and specifically those in work. In contrast, much of the Leave vote was those outside the economy existing on pensions or welfare. Research by sociologist Danny Dorling has demonstrated that the bulk of the Leave vote is found not in economically distressed Northern regions, but in the relatively prosperous and Conservative supporting South East of England.

Focusing on resolving Brexit through a general election is partly understandable from a purely national perspective which saw Brexit as just another policy issue to be dealt with, but this demonstrates a parochial view on the question. Brexit is not just a policy issue, but a manifestation of the authoritarian, nationalist, xenophobic wave which was swept the world in the last four years. Brexit has been a policy aim for the British far-right for the last 25 years, and its realisation would represent a significant victory for them.

The failure of the Labour leadership to see this and act accordingly has been a major shortcoming. Rather than recognising the existential danger posed by Brexit, and seeking to form progressive alliances with other anti-Brexit parties and mobilise the working class in protests against the politically, socially and economically destructive aspects of Brexit, the Labour leadership has sought to force a choice at the ballot box, while providing no concrete solutions to the danger that Brexit poses for millions of EU citizens, and the social and economic well being of the working class of Britain and Europe.

Statements that Corbyn has made such as “Brexit cannot be stopped”, said to Der Spiegel  in November 2018, give cause for concern that even if there were a way to stop Brexit, Corbyn would not support doing so. There has been much equivocating on the issue, with the leadership very slow to argue in favour of a referendum, and attaching caveats that this would only apply to a “Tory deal”, and not to a Brexit deal negotiated by Labour. This has raised concerns that if the negotiations between May and Corbyn do produce a viable deal, the Labour leadership may not require it to be put to a public vote. This would be an immense betrayal of Labour’s membership, and the millions of EU citizens at risk from Brexit.

The long length of negotiations they are holding with the Conservatives (ongoing for over a week now) indicate an unwillingness to abandon them lest it mean the end of Brexit, despite the evident unwillingness of the government to compromise in the slightest.

There is an ongoing within Labour over how to resolve the Brexit crisis. Corbyn supporters remain focused on securing a general election as the solution. The right of the party has organised through the Peoples Vote campaign, and as a result the entire Peoples Vote movement has been viewed by Corbyn’s supporters with mistrust and derision, and even as the source of another leadership challenge to Corbyn. Thankfully there is now a campaign by the left wing of the party, the Love Socialism, Hate Brexit group of young, Corbyn supporting MPs who see the need to resist Brexit, who are working to try and mobilise the Labour membership and the trade unions against the Brexit project. They too are focused on securing a confirmatory referendum on the deal, as the best way to cancel the Brexit Project and resolve the crisis.

The Trade Unions

Much of the leadership and the grassroots of the trade unions are pro-Corbyn, and have demonstrated a willingness to follow his lead throughout the crisis. Most unions policy has been to work for the election of a Labour government as the solution to their problems. There had been little active discussion of Brexit in the union movement, despite all the unions (except the RMT and BAFWU) adopting pro-Remain positions in the 2016 campaign. Many seemed to regard Brexit as the business of the Labour party, and most discussion has been on how to secure a general election, so that a Corbyn government can be formed, and progressive reforms be enacted to benefit their members. Brexit is seen as something that the Labour Party will resolve along the way.

The failure of this strategy to work, and the looming danger of a No Deal Brexit has forced a discussion of how to respond to this, but it is coming extremely late, and extremely slowly, with all the conservatism inherent in the union movement and their unwillingness to engage with Brexit beyond the narrow focus of their members immediate interests.

In September the GMB, the third largest union in Britain came out in support of a second referendum on the Brexit deal. They have argued this using the time honoured position of trade unions that any deal agreed with the boss must be put to the membership for ratification, and they have voiced this as a clear way for the working class to make clear their rejection of the Brexit project in a democratic manner. The GMB has since been joined by UNISON, Britain’s largest public sector union in demanding a ratification referendum on the deal. This has left Unite, the largest union led by Len McCluskey, as the main union voice supporting leaving the EU with some sort of Brexit deal. 

There is growing vocal opposition to Brexit within the unions, but this faces problems, both in the shape of opposition from Corbyn loyalists who view talk of a second referendum or cancelling Brexit as attacks on Labour leadership, and from the moribund state of many unions. Strike days have declined significantly since the passage of the Trade Union act in 2015 which forced unions to secure an absolute majority among workers balloted for strike action. This has created a huge impediment for unions as many suffer from extremely low turnout in industrial action ballots and fall foul of this law. As well the focus of many union leaderships on securing a Labour government as answer to their problems has lead them to reprioritise industrial action. This leaves many union branches still feeling the effects of austerity, or the slowing economy, with little will to fight, and no strategy from the leadership to do so.

Where next?

The “flextension” has granted some much needed breathing space for the anti-Brexit movement, but significant problems remain. Labours equivocation on a second referendum and its ongoing negotiations with May pose a threat. The lack of preparedness for EU elections which will largely be seen as a referendum on Brexit pose another danger. The parliamentary arithmetic left by the 2017 election means there may well not be a majority for a second referendum or revoking article 50 , and the Labour leadership has not sought to construct one with its arguments or alliances. 

The mass demonstration for a second referendum on March 23rd show that there is a mobilised and engaged anti-Brexit movement, which would turn out if given the opportunity, and the 6 million signatures on the revoke Article 50 petition shows the widespread popular support for cancelling Brexit. The question is whether the Labour leadership can break from its narrow, national perspective on Brexit, overcome the pressure to appease racist, pro-Brexit voters, and take the lead of the movement to end Brexit and do so decisively through defeating it in a ratification referendum. Doing so would cause the collapse of the Tory government, and pave the way for a Labour victory; while agreeing a deal with May and carrying through Brexit through a parliamentary vote would enable the Tories to hang on, while wrecking Labour and the Corbyn project for good.